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SiC'10 - How SiC will impact electronics: A 10 year projection...

 

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3990 

Publication date

 October  2009

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Glossary                                                                                           p3

Executive summary                                                                         p4

  • Our vision of SiC market in the next 10 years. Conditions of success…

  • SiC-based device revenues and related 2008 company market shares

  • 10-years projection of SiC power device market size split by applications

  • Relative market shares of SiC power applications to 2019

  • Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019 in units and $, split by diameter

  • Comparison with 2008 report: what we saw, what we missed, what has moved…

  • 2009 noteworthy news

  • 2008 noteworthy news

  • The new entrants since 2005

  • Recent known funding for SiC development

  • Main manufacturing steps of the SiC device processing

From Silicon to SiC: Total Accessible Market analysis                 p17

  • Positioning of the SiC devices in the Silicon world

  • Silicon vs. SiC device characteristics “Reality of silicon & expectations of SiC”

  • Possible applications for SiC devices in Silicon power electronics

  • Market segmentation of SiC applications as a function of voltage range

  • SiC device market shares in %, split by voltage range to 2019

  • SiC device applications roadmap - Time to market

  • Main applications accessible to SiC - specs / market data of today silicon device market

  • Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market for SiC-based power electronics

  • % of SiC device market over the total Silicon discrete power device market to 2019

  • 2008 Top-15 power electronics company revenues (based on overall revenues in the Silicon power electronics)

  • Conclusion

SiC industry outlook                                                                       p29

  • Main SiC fabs in Europe

  • Main SiC fabs in the US

  • Main SiC fabs in Japan

  • Main SiC fabs in Asia (Apart of Japan)

  • Positioning of the main companies over the SiC value-chain

  • Some recent strategies and choices for next-gen power devices technology

  • Research Programs. France: G2REC

  • Research Programs. Europe: MANSiC

  • Research Programs. Japan:

Low-Voltage Applications                                                               p44

Power Factor Corrector Market                                                  

  • PFC market main metrics

  • SiC or GaN main added-value in PFC circuits

  • PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)

  • TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC & GaN

  • SiC or GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications

  • Comparison of Si, SiC or GaN diode cost in a PFC module

  • 2008 SBD cost breakdown model projection From SiC 4” wafer to 6A packaged dies

  • 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes market forecasts in units and revenues for PFC

  • 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes wafers consumption for PFC business

  • 2005-2019 substrate market value for SiC Schottky diodes in PFC business

  • Discrete SiC SBD available on the market as off Q3 2009

  • Conclusion and perspectives

 
Medium-Voltage Applications                                                         p58

EV/HEV market

  • EV/HEV types and availability: Micro, Mild, Full and plug in Hybrid

  • HEV/EV principles and functionalities:

  • Projection of market shares of EV, HEV & FCV over ICE to 2019

  • Sales projection for EV/HEV to 2019 in million units

  • Why SiC in cars ?

  • Current device technologies in use

  • 2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter

  • Expected improvements of SiC introduction in HEV

  • The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to Toyota)

  • Roadmap for operation voltage in HEV

  • Industrial supply-chain and typical market prices from modules to power train

  • Added value analysis of SiC electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings

  • Overview of Toyota HEV power module

  • HEV inverter module cost breakdown

  • Silicon vs. SiC HEV inverter cost breakdown

  • Sales projection for Silicon and SiC devices in EV/HEV inverters to 2019

  • 4” and 6” SiC substrate volume projection for SiC devices in HEV to 2019

  • SiC device suppliers – car manufacturers relationships

  • Conclusion: perspective for SiC devices in the HEV

 Inverters for solar panels

  • Electric parameter of solar cells

  • Solar market segmentation

  • Installed base and annual demand of PV in MW to 2019

  • Inverter module key parameters

  • Cost breakdown of a solar installation and inverter cost in $/kW

  • Typical cost breakdown of a single string inverter for residential application

  • Trends in PV voltage

  • First SiC inverter demonstrators: Fraunhofer ISE (D)

  • First SiC inverter demonstrators: Kassel Institute (D)

  • Electronic devices in PV inverters

  • TOP-5 solar inverter main manufacturers

  • SiC for solar power

  • Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2008-2019

  • Device market for PV inverters. % of SiC market penetration and related size

  • Market volume for SiC wafers for PV inverters

 UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) market

  • Global UPS market: Market value, main uses and worldwide sales

  • UPS products segments

  • Projection of world UPS market to 2019, split by power range

  • UPS vendors market shares

  • UPS architectures examples

  • 2007-2019 Silicon and SiC device market forecasts in UPS applications

  • 2006-2019 SiC substrate market forecasts in USP applications

  • Conclusion: SiC success chances in the UPS segment

 Industrial motor AC drives market

  • AC drives applications

  • Motor drives history

  • AC drives market generalities

  • 2008-2019 projection for AC drives market as a function of power range

  • Less than 10 % of electric motors in the world are fitted with an AC drive.

  • AC drives Total Accessible Market Volumes

  • AC drives market shares

  • AC Drives Supply-Chain

  • AC drives electronic architecture

  • SiC in AC drives: Results from Rockwell Automation

  • SiC in AC drives: Others initiatives

  • Total Accessible Market for SiC in AC Drives

  • 2008-2018 Silicon and SiC device market value in AC drive applications

  • SiC substrates market in units and $ for Motor AC drive applications

  • Conclusion: Success chances for SiC in drives applications

 
High-Voltage Applications                                                             p122

 Rail traction

  •  From grid to IGBT: Typical voltage range

  • Estimation of the world market share of train rolling stock manufacturers

  • Main voltage ranges implemented by major train manufacturers

  • Main parameters for the calculations and definitions. 2007 starting point

  • World market volume for IGBT modules used in rail transportation, split by voltage

  • Tentative roadmap for SiC introduction in rail transportation. Device (chip) market

  • SiC substrate market size for Rail Traction

 Smart Power Grid :

  • Electrical grid management trends

  • Growing need for electricity : will double from 2004 to 2030

  • Transition from today architecture to tomorrow distributed network and smart grid management

  • Architectures of Smart Power Distribution Sytems: HVDC & FACTS

  • HVDC and FACTS use

  • HVDC and FACTS main advantage

  • HVDC and FACTS market data

  • HVDC standard and HVDC light from ABB

  • Voltage Source Converters - HVDC light

  • Typical IGBT setup in an HVDC light system

  • Estimated worldwide HVDC installed capacity in MW

  • FACTS (Flexible AC transmission systems) technologies

  • FACTS technologies

  • Example of supply-chain in power grids

  • Estimation of market size for Silicon and SiC devices (chips) in both HVDC & FACTS applications

  • SiC substrate market size for both HVDC & FACTS applications

 Ships and vessels propulsion

  • Market segments

  • Ships definition

  • Example of propulsion setup

  • Market outlook. Annual demand in units

  • Current Silicon IGBT use and hypothesis

  • IGBT module shipments in units

  • Market for power devices in ships & vessels propulsion

  • SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Ships and Vessels propulsion

 Wind Power Market: Power converters for wind turbines

  • Installed base and annual demand in GW and units

  •  Annual installed capacity geographical breakdown

  • Wind turbine architecture

  • Wind turbine generators and power converters

  • Variable speed wind power electrical characteristics

  • Variable speed wind turbine inverters

  • Industrial supply-chain

  • Wind turbines market trends

  • Typical architecture of a 2MW Double Fed Induction Generator  (DFIG): 80% of the market

  • 6-pack Silicon IGBT module and diode market for wind turbine

  • Transistor + diode market for wind turbines in Silicon and SiC market penetration

  • SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Wind Turbines

  • Conclusions

 SiC substrates market                                                                    p172

  • What has changed in 08?

  • State-of-art in SiC crystal growth

  • SiC material: from polytype to devices

  • From powder to SiC epi-ready wafers Sublimation (PVT) technique

  • SiC crystal growth techniques comparison table

  • Main SiC material manufacturing site locations Bulk and/or epi-foundry

  • 2009 estimated SiC substrates monthly production

  • Material polytypes, doping & orientation commercially available

  • 2006, 2007 & 2008 SiC substrate vendor revenues & related market shares (n-type and S.I.)

  • Key accounts of main SiC material vendors 2008 status

  • SiC epi-house and epi-service offers

  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for Power Electronics

  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC LED

  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC RF devices

  • 2005-2019 SiC row substrates price evolution split by type (S.I. / n-type) and diameter (2”, 3”, 4” and 6”)

  • Volume dependency of SiC n-type pricing as a function of the lot size. Example for 3” and 4”

  •  Comparison SiC/Si for cost of raw substrate for a 1 Amp device

  • Impact of the off-cut on the ingot yield

  • SiC epitaxy: typical process time

  • Overview of SiC epi-reactors installed-base (non-exhaustive list)

  • Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019

  • Conclusion

 SiC Technology: Discrete device & Power Module                          p195

  • $/mm² for SiC row substrate and processed device in 2009 and 2015

  • SiC power devices: chips size and power density

  • Current density SiC material price pushes for high A/mm²

  • Current density (A/mm²) roadmap for SiC devices in production

  • SiC transistor: who is active?

  • SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)

  • 2010 MOSFET cost breakdown model projection
    From 4” wafer to 1200V/100A packaged dies

  • SiC MOSFET: state-of-the-art

  • SiC diodes: state-of-the-art

  • SiC JFET state-of-the-art

  • SiC BJT: state-of-the-art

  • SiC Thyristor: state-of-the-art

  • Main power module products implementing SiC devices

    • AIST 300kVA SiC inverter

    • Mitsubishi Electric 3.7kW SiC inverter

    • Mitsubishi Electric 11kW SiC inverter

    • CREE / Kansai Electric 100 kVA SiC Inverter

    • Peregrine Power

    • APEI Inc.

    • SatCon Power Systems

 General conclusion. Perspectives of the SiC industry                       p216

 Appendix

  • Sumitomo Metal Industries Liquid Phase Epitaxy process

  • SiC epi-reactor LPE-EPI (Milano, italy)

  • SiC epi-reactor Epigress (Aixtron Group)

  • CREE company profile

    •  2008 fiscal year results (Ended June 29th, 2008)

    •  Distribution of 2007-2008 revenues

    • re-building of CREE-OSRAM business relations

    •  2005 to 2008 analysis: breakdown by main customers

    • Location & Size

    • Facilities Equipment

 

 


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