Quantum technologies: a jump to a commercial state

Extracted from : Quantum Technologies report, Yole Développement, 2020


  • Quantum technologies are shifting from fundamental R&D to engineering.
  • The total market for quantum technologies should reach US$3.2 billion in 2030.
  • The battle royale has started for quantum supremacy.
  • "Quantum Technologies: Understand the Industrial Perspective": Webcast taking place March 29 at 5.00 PM CET. Register today!

“Quantum technologies are at the crossroads of numerous applications and fields,” says Eric Mounier, PhD. Fellow Analyst at Yole Développement (Yole).They span system engineering, materials research, cryogenic technology, software, semiconductors and photonics. They are still early stage technologies, but with huge potential, explains the market research & strategy consulting company in its new report, Quantum Technologies.
And Eric adds:
“In the past, we saw the first quantum revolution when the priorities were to understand and predict. Today we are entering the second quantum revolution, when engineering is needed to develop future quantum systems based on photons, electrons, atoms or molecules.”

Quantum technologies and specifically quantum computing are rising, bringing many questions: which qubit technologies will be favored? Developments are ongoing, but could new qubit technologies be found for quantum computer applications? Is business module yet defined? What will be the strategy of the GAFAM ?...

For more than 20 years, Yole has developed its semiconductor activities by enlarging step by step its expertise towards technical innovations and disruptions. Under its development, the company has grown with a dedicated activity focused on a wide range of emerging technologies including quantum computing, quantum sensing, metamaterials, wet-ware, neuromorphic and more. As part of its products and services, Yole’s team proposes today a collection of reports covering such technologies. A detailed description of these reports is available on i-Micronews.com, reports section.
“Innovation is at the heart of our activities,” asserts Guillaume Girardin, Director, Photonic & Sensing.“Under a dynamic ecosystem, anticipate disruption is clearly a challenge for industrials. Our aim through our activities including technology & market reports, monitors, consulting services, online & onsite events… is to support our customers to help them follow emerging technologies, identify and analyze time-to-market and upcoming technological inflexion points.”

The total market value for quantum technologies, including computing, cryptography and sensing, will grow from about US$480 million in 2018 to US$3.2 billion in 2030, with a 17% CAGR.
Yole’s analysts estimate the quantum computing hardware market value to be about US$30 million today, mostly for quantum annealers, growing to US$650 million in 2030. QaaS will be worth US$1.37 billion in 2030. The QKD market was worth US$68 million in 2019 and will grow to US$785 million in 2030. The quantum sensor market will grow from US$400 million in 2019 to US$545 million in 2030.

“Growth for quantum technologies will take off after 2026-2027 due to future announcements of available quantum computers and new use cases for quantum telecommunication, as shown,”
details Eric Mounier from Yole. “Quantum computing is today attracting the most interest. And it also drives developments in telecommunications and sensing. Quantum communication is a more mature technology for short distances around 100km. Quantum sensors and clocks are still small markets.”

Although quantum computing is jumping to a commercialization state, many challenges are still ahead. For example, qubit control must achieve sufficient fidelity, coherence and scalability. Cryogenic control technology is also critical for access to this technology. At each stage, qubits are protected from thermal noise during the process of sending control and readout signals to the processor. And of course, quantum computing requires specific algorithms. Are we today at the early stages of the quantum computing as we were 70 years ago for semiconductors? Maybe, but there are large differences between these technologies. First, there is no defined architecture for quantum computing as von Neumann had laid out for classical computers. Second, scalability is still an issue for qubit manufacturing in volume.

Moreover, we cannot say today that an equivalent to Moore’s law will exist for quantum computing in the future, explain Yole’s analysts in the Quantum Technologies report. However, quantum technologies are today in the engineering phase. Future developments in cryogenic, software and qubit manufacturing could speed up quantum computer advancements.
At Yole, analysts believe that quantum technologies are a real disruption in the sense they are based on totally new technologies, use cases, supply chain and business model evolutions… A detailed description of the Quantum Technologies report is available today on i-Micronews.com.

Yole is organizing a dedicated online event on March 29. This quantum technologies webcast will give an overview of the current status for quantum technologies, including computers but also communication and sensing. We will discuss our market forecast as well as the upcoming challenges that must be faced for quantum technologies to turn into a viable business. Register today!

GAFAM : Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft
CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate
QKD : Quantum Key Distribution