QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES - MARKET UPDATE 2021

Quantum technologies: the market is growing

Extracted from:
Quantum Technologies 2021 report, Yole Développement, 2021

Although still a distant business, industrial interest in quantum continues.

OUTLINE:

  • Market forecast:
    The total market for quantum technologies (computing, cryptography, sensing) will grow to US$2.9 billion in 2030. Yole forecasts 18% and 30% CAGR for 2020-2025 and 2020-2030, respectively.
    The three main market segments, quantum computing, quantum sensing / timing, and cryptography, will grow nicely between 2020 and 2030 to reach, respectively, US$1,147 million, US$598 million, and US$1,163 million.
  • Application Insights:
    Pharmaceutical is today attracting most of the attention for quantum computing.
    However, it will take many years (maybe 20 to 30) before quantum is extensively used in medical and pharma applications.
    Quantum computing will be ready to be used in 5-10 years for drug development (when there is already an identified drug candidate).
    For drug discovery, it will be ready in 10- 20+ years.
    Following the adoption of quantum in Pharmaceutical, other applications could follow:- energy, chemistry, transportation, banks, and finance could adopt quantum computing in 10+ years.
  • Supply chain:
    Since 2012, investors have shown interest in start-ups in quantum. And 2020 was particularly active for investments.
    Since 2012, almost US$2 billion (including computing, software, cryptography, and sensors) have been invested in about 80 start-ups, with companies developing hardware receiving the largest share (60+%).
    Largest investments are in North America: PsiQuantum (photonic quantum processor), D-Wave (superconducting qubits), IonQ (trapped ions), Rigetti. Europe also has a quantum champion with IDQ in Switzerland.
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“Quantum technology covers a wide range of applications addressing key industrial simulation and optimization challenges.” asserts Eric Mounier, Ph.D., Director of Market Research at Yole Développement (Yole).
He adds:
“These span chemicals/materials research, logistics, financial services, healthcare, life science, manufacturing and defense, drug discovery, protein structure prediction, investment risk analysis, feedstock management, vehicle routing, and network optimization. It is also a critical national issue for many countries as it addresses secure communications and database management linked to national security.”

For more than 20 years, Yole has developed its semiconductor activities by enlarging step by step its expertise in technical innovations and disruptions. Through this development, the company has grown with dedicated activities focused on a wide range of emerging technologies, including quantum computing, quantum sensing, metamaterials, wet-ware, neuromorphic, and more.
Released today, the Quantum Technologies 2021 report includes market trends and forecasts, supply chain, technology trends, technical insights and analyses, take-aways, and outlook. This study delivers an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and leading players’ strategies and enables a thorough understanding of the value chain, infrastructure, and players in quantum technologies and the quantum computing market.
What are the economic and technological challenges of quantum technologies? What are the key drivers? What will the market look like in 2030? Who are the companies to watch, and what innovative solutions are they working on?
Yole presents today the status of quantum technologies.

As analyzed by Yole’s team in the new Quantum Technologies 2021 report, quantum computing is still subject to technological and timing uncertainty, but investments continue. Medical and pharma applications are interesting, promising markets, but it seems that inorganic markets are « simpler » to address than medical markets for quantum technologies in the short term. In the next decade(s), extensive R&D will continue to define qubit solutions, quantum computer architectures, software, and business models. The supply chain will consolidate as well, and we could soon see the first acquisitions. Cryptography, sensing, and timing are already existing markets and will continue to grow. QKD could experience a market boost with 5G. The total value for quantum technologies, including computing, cryptography, and sensing, will grow from about US$340 million in 2020 to US$2.9 billion in 2030. QaaS will be 65% of the total.

There is a long road before companies realize a universal quantum gate-based computer. Today, only one company – D Wave in Canada – is manufacturing and shipping quantum annealers. Although they use 2,000 to 5,000 qubits, these Ising machines are today restricted to optimization problems. Quantum emulators are another topic, one where Japan is strongly involved. The next step will be to develop NISQ machines with 50-100 logical qubits. Then the holy grail will be to develop a universal quantum computer with a minimum of 100 logical qubits, corresponding to 100,000 physical qubits.
Recently, another approach has emerged with the development of quantum accelerators. These will be used in conjunction with CPUs and GPUs or FPGAs in HPCs . Calculations will be distributed according to usage on one or the other chip, quantum or non-quantum. This is a mid-term approach to the use of hybrid quantum computers using both semiconductor logic chips and quantum accelerators with well-defined and distinct roles.

As part of its products and services, Yole’s team offers a collection of reports covering such technologies. A detailed description of these reports is available on i-Micronews.com, reports section.

Ensure you are up-to-date with the latest news coming from the industry and get an overview of our activities, including interviews with leading companies and more on i-Micronews.
In this regard, do not miss the LASER World of PHOTONICS Industry Days. Eric Mounier, PhD, Director of Market Research at Yole Développement will participate to the roundtable “Quantum – Quo Vadis?” on Thursday, June 24. Register here.
Stay tuned!

Acronyms:
QaaS: Quantum as a Service
NISQ: Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum
CPU: Central Processor Units  
GPU: Graphics Processor Units
FPGA: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays
HPC: High Performance Computer

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