AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES


Autonomous trends will radically change the automotive industry landscape

OUTLINES:

  • Multiple sensing technologies will ensure many market opportunities for tier 1 players, tier 2 players and newcomers alike.
  • By 2030, sensors for autonomous cars could be worth US$ 36 billion.
  • The key sensor technologies are mature, but bottlenecks exist elsewhere.
  • Autonomous trends are radically changing the landscape, but knock-on effects will not be visible for a few years.

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LYON, France – December 11, 2015: Technology is slowly replacing the driver announces, Yole Développement (Yole), the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company: by 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous functionalities… Indeed, according to the latest MEMS & Sensors analysis entitled Sensors & Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles (October 2015 edition), it should take almost 150 years to replace the driver in high-end automotive. Key sensor technologies are today mature, but bottlenecks exist elsewhere: indeed such technologies enable key functionalities which are the current battleground of the industry… Under the new Sensors & Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles report, Yole’s analysts propose a deep understanding of the automotive landscape and its technology evolution. The market research company introduces, in its report, the key market drivers and discloses an overview of the autonomous vehicles industry in 2030.

Sensors & Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles report is a relevant combination of Yole’s knowledge in the automotive and imaging sectors. The analysts are daily discussing with the leaders of these industries to identify, evaluate and compare technologies and market tendencies. With this new technology & market analysis, the market research and strategy consulting company, Yole validates its market positioning in these areas and explore the future trends.

“Connected car is the first step toward autonomous cars”, explains Yole’s team in the “Sensors & Data Management for Autonomous Vehicles” report. Indeed consumer electronic is step by step invading the automotive market: the IT companies are now providing software platforms to merge smartphones OS and car entertainment platform for example. The next step will be mainly focused on the modulation of the vehicle environment. It includes temperature monitoring, seat position control… to fit with driver’s preferences via a smartphone. Yole is so expecting a strong face to face between traditional equipment makers and giants of the consumer industry such as Apple and Google. According to Yole’s analysts, some signs are there and confirm the trend:
-  Numerous partnerships, acquisitions and joint ventures in software, self-driving technology …
-  The involvement of Tesla within the electric vehicles industry
-  The new role played by the leaders of the consumer electronic area …

To be fully autonomous, a car needs numerous sensors including radar sensors (short and long range), ultra-sonic sensors, cameras (visible, NIR , LWIR ), LIDAR ) and dead reckoning sensors... According to Yole’s analysts, the “autonomy pack” that will be found in 2030 costs today between US$ 10,000 and US$ 15,000, and will decrease for the next 10 years leading to a strong adoption.
“The technologies are available but important improvement must be clearly done to reduce costs, especially LIDAR and high-end GPS costs” confirms Dr Eric Mounier, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, MEMS & Sensors at Yole.
By 2045, Yole is expecting 29 sensors to ensure the full autonomy of the vehicle. Indeed the number of sensors strongly increases prior to the sensor fusion stage, where sensors will be full exploited: long range radar, surround camera and ultrasonic sensors are part of the vehicle between 2010 and 2015; between 2020 and 2045, Yole’s analysts identify much more sensors and so new functionalities… “The sensor modules volumes will present a 17% CAGR growth between 2015 and 2030”, details Dr Guillaume Girardin, Technology & Market Analyst, MEMS & Sensors at Yole.
Under this analysis, Yole listed 5 different levels of autonomy between 2012 and after 2040. Additional functionalities at every level have been also determined by Yole’s team. For example, in 2022 (level #3), Yole forecasts the following functionalities: Park Assist – Adaptive Cruise Control – Lane Keeping Assist – Lane Departure Warning System already in place since 2015. Plus Autonomous Emergency Braking, Driver Monitoring, Traffic Jam Assist. At this level, a car will embed for US$2,200 of sensors (ADAS only): it combines ultrasonic, radar LRR and radar SRR, long distance camera, camera surround, stereo camera, microbolometer, LIDAR and dead reckoning… And more. About 29 sensors have been identified at level #3, against 6 sensors at the level #1 (before 2012).
“This increasing number of sensors will benefit to the equipment makers but also to the semiconductor companies,” says Dr Mounier from Yole. “With more than 650 million units per year by 2030, automotive supply chain will face many challenges and will experience a tough battle.”
A detailed description of the autonomous vehicle report is available on i-micronews.com, MEMS & Sensors reports section.